By Hon. Matia Kasaija, Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development

Uganda’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience and strong growth momentum, despite global, regional, and domestic shocks. Addressing the media on August 26, 2025, the Minister of Finance, Hon. Matia Kasaija, outlined the country’s economic performance, key achievements, and outlook, affirming Uganda’s commitment to sustainable development and inclusive growth.

Economic Performance: A Strong Growth Path

In the Financial Year (FY) 2024/25, Uganda’s economy expanded to Shs 226.3 trillion (USD 61.3 billion), up from Shs 203.7 trillion (USD 53.9 billion) the previous year. This growth translated into an increase in GDP per capita from USD 1,159 to USD 1,263. Real GDP grew by 6.3 percent, compared to 6.1 percent the year before, with robust performance across agriculture, industry, and services such as ICT.

This expansion was largely driven by government-led wealth creation programs, including the Parish Development Model (PDM), Uganda Development Bank (UDB) interventions, Emyooga, and the Agricultural Credit Facility. Additionally, coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have stimulated private investment, reinforcing economic stability.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Inflation remained under control, easing to 3.8% in July 2025 from 3.9% in June. This was supported by lower food prices, increased agricultural supply, and reduced transport costs due to falling fuel prices. The Central Bank Rate (CBR) was maintained at 9.75% for the tenth consecutive month, striking a balance between keeping inflation low and supporting growth.

Investor Confidence and Currency Stability

Indicators show a vibrant economy with rising investor confidence. The Composite Index of Economic Activity improved from 179.14 in May 2025 to 181.03 in June 2025, signaling growing business activity. The Ugandan shilling also appreciated by 0.5% to Shs 3,586 per US Dollar in July 2025. Impressively, the IMF ranked the shilling as the most stable currency in Africa, buoyed by strong remittances, increased exports, and foreign investor inflows.

Expanding Exports and Foreign Investment

Uganda’s export basket continues to diversify. Over the past 15 years, 32 new export products including ceramic tiles, fiberboard, and processed soybean residues have joined traditional commodities. Coffee’s dominance has declined from 75.6% of total exports in 1995 to just 20.9% in 2025, paving the way for new merchandise exports like gold (39.3%), cocoa, metals, and sugar.

Merchandise exports surged by 64.3% in the 12 months to June 2025, while tourism earnings rose to USD 1.52 billion, boosted by peace, improved competitiveness, and strategic investments in Uganda Airlines and tourism infrastructure. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) climbed to USD 3.3 billion in 2024, reflecting investor confidence in Uganda’s oil and gas sector and broader economy.

Fiscal Performance and Domestic Revenues

Domestic revenue mobilization has also shown positive results. In FY2024/25, collections surpassed target, hitting Shs 32.08 trillion against a planned Shs 31.98 trillion. In July 2025 alone, revenues and grants stood at Shs 2.54 trillion, partly boosted by an unexpected inflow of grants.

Social Progress: Building Human Capital

Uganda’s economic gains are translating into improved livelihoods. The country achieved lower-middle-income status in 2024, and its Human Development Index (HDI) rose from 0.550 in 2022 to 0.582 in 2023. Life expectancy improved from 63.7 years to 68.9 years, while poverty reduced from 20.3% in FY2019/20 to 16.1% in FY2023/24. Income inequality also narrowed, thanks to wealth creation funds targeting youth, women, the elderly, and persons with disabilities.

Outlook: A $500 Billion Vision

Looking ahead, the economy is projected to grow by at least 7% in FY2025/26 and reach double-digit growth in the medium term with the start of oil and gas production. Over the next 15 years, Uganda aims to transform into a USD 500 billion economy through the Ten-Fold Growth Strategy, anchored on four priority sectors:

• Agro-industrialization
• Tourism development
• Mineral-based industrialization
• Science, Technology, Innovation, and ICT (including the creative economy)

Uganda stands at a defining moment in its economic journey. Stable inflation, robust private sector activity, a stronger shilling, and diversified exports all affirm the resilience of the economy. With strategic focus under the Ten-Fold Growth Strategy, Uganda is positioning itself to leap from a USD 61 billion economy today to a USD 500 billion economy within 15 years, securing prosperity for generations to come.